Polysilicon industry that was "mistaken"

China's polysilicon industry has gone from scratch, breaking the technical blockade of foreign countries to China, significantly reducing the price of polysilicon products, and making a significant contribution to the rapid decline of global photovoltaic power generation costs.

China's polysilicon industry has gone from scratch, breaking the technical blockade of foreign countries to China, significantly reducing the price of polysilicon products, and making a significant contribution to the rapid decline of global photovoltaic power generation costs. At present, China has basically mastered the production technology of 10,000-ton polysilicon. The industrial scale is in the forefront of the world, and the production technology and energy consumption level of some enterprises are at the advanced level in the world, and the quality of products is also steadily improving. The right to speak. It can be said that this development has not been easy to come by, and it has condensed the efforts and wisdom of several generations of polysilicon people in China.

However, along with the development of China's polysilicon industry, there are two voices that have been lingering in the polysilicon industry. One is “polysilicon belongs to the “double high” industry”; the other is “the overcapacity in China's polysilicon industry”. With the advancement of technology and the market reversal mechanism, the level of China's polysilicon production technology has long been inconsistent with the initial stage of development. The “double high” hat can be removed; and China's polysilicon overcapacity is a structural excess, and it cannot change China's need. The fact that a large number of foreign polysilicon are imported. But these two misunderstandings still plague China's polysilicon industry, and the negative effects continue to increase. Although China's polysilicon industry has repeatedly clamoured for the society and government authorities to eliminate the adverse effects, the two misunderstandings are still looming, and even some industry experts have not changed their mindsets and passed on in supporting the government's decision-making process. Wrong message.

Misunderstanding 1:

Polysilicon belongs to the "double high" industry

“Double high” means high energy consumption and high pollution. First of all, "double high" is not the essential attribute of the polysilicon industry.

Regarding high pollution, the main concern of the industry is the treatment of silicon tetrachloride. At present, more than 80% of the world's polysilicon production adopts the modified Siemens method. The core of the process is to hydrogenate the by-product silicon tetrachloride to form trichlorosilane to return to the system for recycling, or to use silicon tetrachloride as raw material. Chemical products such as white carbon black. As the price of polysilicon products continues to decline, the recycling of silicon tetrachloride becomes a necessary way to reduce production costs. If not recycled, the production cost will even exceed the price of polysilicon. In addition, hydrogen is flammable and explosive during the production of polysilicon, and hydrogen chloride is a strong acid gas, but these materials are recycled as intermediate materials in the system. After purification of trichlorosilane, there are some unusable chlorosilane impurities, which can be used as building materials or landfill roadbed after neutralization by adding alkali, and the sewage after neutralization is discharged to the sewage treatment plant. Therefore, for a qualified and competitive polysilicon company, the impact on the environment is very small or even negligible.

Regarding high energy consumption, we measure it by the recognized ratio of energy output per unit. Based on the internationally advanced power consumption level of the Siemens method polysilicon enterprise and the current polysilicon market price, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP for polysilicon production is 2.3 tons of standard coal, which is much smaller than the unit consumption of high energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum and cement. And from the perspective of energy recovery, it is estimated that from silicon ore to industrial silicon, then from industrial silicon to polysilicon, manufacturing silicon wafers, cells, components, and then to photovoltaic power generation systems, the entire process consumes electricity, as long as this photovoltaic power generation The system is fully recovered after 2-3 years of operation, and the electricity generated during the remaining 20 years of life is a net increase. Therefore, whether it is from the energy consumption of polysilicon production or the energy consumption and recycling of the entire photovoltaic industry chain, the polysilicon industry is not a high energy-consuming industry.

From the side, the layout of the polysilicon industry in developed countries can also indirectly indicate that the polysilicon industry does not belong to the “double high” industry. Before 2005, global polysilicon production was mainly concentrated in seven polysilicon enterprises, namely Hemlock in the United States, Wacker in Germany, MEMC in the United States, REC in the United States, Tokuyama in Japan, Mitsubisi in Japan, and Sumitomo in Japan. The products are mainly electronic grade polysilicon. With the development of the photovoltaic industry, more polysilicon companies have emerged. At present, foreign polysilicon plants are mainly distributed in developed countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea. There are almost no polysilicon enterprises in developing countries (except China). As is known to all, developed countries have higher requirements for the environment. If there is so-called “high energy consumption and high emissions” in polysilicon production, it is estimated that industrial transfer has already been implemented. In fact, some developed countries such as the United States have listed polysilicon enterprises as clean energy. In recent years, they have made a lot of subsidies, which has made the US and South Korea polysilicon enterprises bloom everywhere. Especially in these countries, except for the United States, which is rich in energy, Germany, Japan and South Korea are relatively scarce resources, but this does not prevent them from encouraging the development of the polysilicon industry based on strategic interests. Therefore, "high energy consumption, high emissions" is not an essential attribute of polysilicon production.

Second, with the development and maturity of China's polysilicon industry, China's polysilicon industry has long had no "double high" problem. We must admit that in the early days of China's polysilicon development, there were indeed problems of high energy consumption and high pollution. In the early stage of development, although China adopted the Siemens method, due to the lack of a closed-loop treatment process, the main by-product silicon tetrachloride produced in the production process could not be recycled. Some enterprises were driven by profiteering and disposed of silicon tetrachloride at will. Environmental protection emissions are not up to standard; in addition, due to the small scale of the equipment, backward technology and low efficiency, the production of 1 kg of polysilicon consumes 300-500 degrees of electricity, and the cost remains high. However, with the advancement of China's polysilicon production technology, the continuous expansion of scale, and the mastery of production processes such as thermal hydrogenation and cold hydrogenation, China has basically mastered the closed-loop production process of 10,000-ton polysilicon. The energy consumption of polysilicon production continues to decrease, and the recycling rate of materials continues. improve. At present, the national average comprehensive energy consumption has dropped from nearly 200KWh/kg in 2009 to the current 120KWh/kg. The comprehensive energy consumption of some advanced production lines has dropped to 80KWh/kg, and silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride and hydrogen are recovered in the reducing exhaust gas. The utilization rate is not less than 98.5%, 99%, and 99%.

Misunderstanding 2:

China's polysilicon overcapacity

From the perspective of statistical production capacity, China's polysilicon production capacity reached 190,000 tons in 2012, and apparent consumption of polysilicon was 154,000 tons. In 2012, the output of China's crystalline silicon cells was 23GW, calculated at 6g per watt of silicon, and the required polysilicon was 138,000 tons. Therefore, from the perspective of numbers alone, there is indeed a problem of overcapacity in China's polysilicon. However, it should be noted that China still has 82,700 tons of polysilicon to be imported in 2012, while China's actual polysilicon production in 2012 was only 71,000 tons, and other production capacity has not been converted into production. In other words, China's polysilicon industry presents a structural excess.

From the perspective of enterprise competitiveness, the production costs of most polysilicon enterprises in China vary greatly. Under the adjustment of price leverage, most enterprises do not have competitive advantages. According to the incomplete statistics of CCID think tanks, there are 16 domestic polysilicon enterprises with a capacity below 1,000 tons, 16 between 1000-2000 tons, 4 between 2000-3000 tons, and 6 with more than 5,000 tons. . It can be seen that China's polysilicon enterprises are mainly small enterprises. The enterprises with a capacity of less than 2,000 tons basically come from China's early polysilicon production technology. The basic characteristics of these enterprises are that the hydrogenation capacity is seriously insufficient. It is necessary to purchase trichlorosilane from the outside and transport silicon tetrachloride to the outside. The cost is high, and on the other hand, the environmental pressure is also huge. In the current market environment, these enterprises have basically stopped production, and it is necessary to be eliminated by the market. Therefore, the effective production capacity of polysilicon in China is far from reaching 190,000 tons.

From the current market price point of view, China's polysilicon production is far from meeting the needs of the Chinese market. In 2008, the price of polysilicon once reached 500 US dollars / kg. Driven by the rapid development of solar energy industry and high profits, the domestic spurt of building a polysilicon project was launched. A large number of new construction and expansion projects were put into production successively. Backbone polysilicon companies have also expanded their production. With the continuous release of production capacity, the sharp decline in the price of downstream PV modules, the price of upstream polysilicon products and the low price dumping of polysilicon enterprises in China's polysilicon market, the price of polysilicon products began to decline rapidly. In the first quarter of 2011, the spot price of polysilicon was US$70/kg. By the end of 2011, it had rapidly dropped to nearly US$30/kg. By the end of 2012, the price of polysilicon products had fallen to US$16/kg, while more than 50% of China's polysilicon enterprises Production costs are still above $30/kg.

With the rapid decline in prices, most polysilicon companies have been forced to cut production or stop production. According to the statistics of CCID Research, more than 80% of the polysilicon enterprises with production capacity in China have stopped production in 2012. By the end of 2012, there were only 8 enterprises still operating in the country, and the production capacity accounted for about 50% of the national total capacity. %. Due to the serious price decline, even the capacity utilization rate of enterprises still in production is not high. In the first half of 2013, China's polysilicon production capacity was about 90,000 tons, and the output was about 31,000 tons. About 40,000 tons still need to be imported. It is estimated that the output of China's battery components will exceed 23GW in 2013, and the required polysilicon will be 138,000 tons. However, from the current production capacity in China, even full-load production cannot meet the demand of China's polysilicon market. Even if some enterprises resume production, due to the global perspective, the effective production capacity is far from the balance of supply and demand, and even exceeds. Therefore, the price of polysilicon prices is limited, and the capacity of enterprises with domestic strength and technology to achieve resumption of production is limited. From the perspective of capacity efficiency, there is no overcapacity in China's polysilicon industry, and there is still room for expansion of advantageous enterprises.

"tangible hands" affect the development of polysilicon

Foreign governments support their own polysilicon enterprises in terms of investment subsidies, financing support, tax incentives, land concessions and electricity price subsidies, but China is in contrast to the impact of a small number of polysilicon companies on short-term and non-standard operations. With the hat of “two highs and one capital”, the State Council also listed the polysilicon industry as a surplus industry for macro-control in the No. 38 document issued in 2009. The preferential policies enjoyed by the polysilicon industry have also been cancelled, and industrial development has been restricted.

First, it does not encourage new or expanded polysilicon projects. Since the introduction of Circular No. 38 in 2009, the approval authority for polysilicon projects has been collected by the central government. Since then, there have been very few polysilicon projects approved, not to mention investment subsidies. Second, the environmental impact assessment of the polysilicon project was also included in the central government. Without the roads, the environmental impact assessment could not be carried out. Therefore, the technical reform of some polysilicon projects could not be carried out smoothly, which was not conducive to the advancement of polysilicon technology or the decline of cost. Third, the state canceled the preferential price of polysilicon. Since June 1, 2010, the preferential electricity prices enjoyed by polysilicon have been cancelled, and local standard electricity prices have been implemented. This has also led to a significant increase in the cost of polysilicon production in China. Fourth, the financing encountered difficulties. As polysilicon was not supported by the state, the financing of some projects was also hitting the wall, and the difficulty of loans increased, let alone loan concessions. The fifth is polysilicon enterprises. In addition to enjoying the preferential tax policies of high-tech enterprises, there is no tax preferential policy. The polysilicon export tax rebate policy enjoyed in the early years has also been cancelled due to the so-called “two highs and one capital” hat. Sixth, the public opinion environment is bad. Due to the one-sided reports over the years, the polysilicon has become famous all over the world. When it comes to polysilicon projects, it will be remembered that this is a project with high energy consumption and high pollution, which makes it on the cusp.

Polysilicon is the basic raw material for the information industry and the solar photovoltaic industry. According to a report by the American Semiconductor Association in 2000, the $7.5 billion silicon material supported the $270 billion IC industry, which in turn supported the trillion-dollar information industry. Some people call "silicon material" an economic multiplier.

After several generations of efforts, China's polysilicon industry has broken the foreign technology blockade and has grown into an important global production base for polysilicon products, which has effectively supported the large-scale development of China's and even the global PV industry, and its achievements have not been easy. However, due to the sharp decline in the price of polysilicon products and the low price dumping of foreign polysilicon products, most polysilicon enterprises in China are difficult to operate, and the pressure of cash flow makes them unable to continue production to improve process parameters, reduce production costs, and have no financial strength to carry out technological transformation. upgrade. Due to the restrictions on the polysilicon industry by the policy, the misunderstanding of the development of the polysilicon industry by the community, and the difficulties faced by the photovoltaic industry in recent times, investors are afraid to follow up, and the credit department also strictly controls the investment in polysilicon enterprises. The policy of discriminating against polysilicon enterprises, the prospects of these polysilicon enterprises are not optimistic, and even some of China's leading polysilicon companies have also experienced significant losses.

Therefore, if we do not change our misunderstandings as soon as possible and strengthen our support for the dominant polysilicon enterprises, China's polysilicon competition will be lost. On the other hand, China's polysilicon industry still has high-purity polysilicon (electronic grade). Production technology needs to be broken, some key equipment, parts and raw materials rely on imports, polysilicon system integration capabilities need to be improved, and China's research on polysilicon basic properties and cutting-edge technology is seriously insufficient, which is not conducive to continue to maintain the competitive advantage of China's polysilicon industry. There is still a strong need for strong support from the government and society.

Fortunately, the country introduced the “Plastic Industry Access Conditions” in 2010, which clearly defined and restricted the location, energy consumption, environmental protection and scale of polysilicon production. The introduction of industry standards raised the industry threshold. It helps to eliminate backward production capacity. On the other hand, it will also help differentiate the future support policies of the photovoltaic industry and achieve support and support.

Here, we once again call for correcting the understanding as soon as possible, taking off the "double high" hat of polysilicon, and the polysilicon industry to be true. Effectively consider the overall deployment of the national energy economy and social sustainable development to enhance the strategic position of the polysilicon industry in the semiconductor information and photovoltaic industry. Correcting the previous one-size-fits-all approach, coordinating the formulation of supporting policies for industry, finance, taxation, finance, and talents, and actively promoting the healthy development of China's polysilicon industry.

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