2013 potash fertilizer industry status analysis
On March 27th in Kunming, representatives from the Inorganic Salt Industry Association's Potash (Fertilizer) Branch, including 22 officials at or above vice president level, gathered to discuss the current status of domestic potash fertilizer resources, operating conditions of potash fertilizer varieties, and proposed development strategies for the industry.
According to available data, China’s potash fertilizer production capacity reached 5.4 million tons of potassium oxide (equivalent to 8.57 million tons of potassium chloride) in 2012, an increase of 610,000 tons compared to 2011. The total domestic supply of potash was 16.63 million tons of potassium chloride, while apparent domestic demand reached 12.53 million tons. Imports totaled 6.467 million tons, a slight rise from 6.41 million tons in 2011.
Experts at the meeting noted that international potash importers have been expanding their production capacities rapidly. Currently, Europe has a capacity of 8 million tons, Russia 22 million tons, Belarus 12 million tons, and several new projects are under way, with a combined capacity of 25 million tons. These capacities are expected to be fully operational by 2015. This expansion is seen as a strategic move to suppress domestic production, and industry players must prepare for increasing pressure in the future.
The head of the Potash (Fertilizer) Branch stated that after years of market challenges, the industry has matured. The chairman of the Salt Lake Group mentioned that the supply and demand for potassium chloride are relatively balanced, but transportation issues have led to rising prices. Additionally, supply-demand imbalances persist during peak seasons. Luo Kuo, a representative from China, said that potassium prices have largely hit a bottom, the most difficult period has passed, and confidence is returning in 2013.
With the railway reform, the industry faces even greater freight cost pressures, making cost control critical for companies. There is no significant technological gap between domestic and foreign anti-flotation + cold crystallization methods, and domestic products are generally more cost-effective than imports. Industry insiders also pointed out that the market remains stable, though potassium carbonate prices have risen due to the relocation of the Wentong Group. Meanwhile, the potassium hydroxide industry has expanded its production capacity, driven by strong demand.
To address the development of the potash fertilizer industry, the Potassium Salt (Fertilizer) Branch proposed seven key areas for improvement: first, enhance the utilization of seawater potassium resources and promote large-scale industrialization of insoluble potassium resources; second, build on the existing 15 overseas potash enterprises and use the "Opinions on Encouraging and Guiding Private Enterprises to Actively Invest Overseas" to further promote overseas investment; third, maintain traditional import channels like "Xuandi" while opening up new import routes and product types; fourth, introduce a "potash fertilizer price index" in a timely manner; fifth, improve the statistics and verification of potash fertilizer data; sixth, support the export of certain potash products through reasonable tariff policies, especially for Mannheim products; and seventh, adjust the pricing and competitiveness of potassium carbonate and potassium hydroxide to strengthen their position in the global market.
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