Europe, the United States and South Korea low dumping impact on the domestic polysilicon industry
The Ministry of Commerce has released a "Revised Timetable for Adjusting the Anti-Dumping Investigation on Solar-Grade Polysilicon in the U.S. and South Korea, as well as the Dumping Subsidy Investigation Procedure for Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Investigations on Solar-Grade Polysilicon in the U.S. and the European Union." This notice came after input from various stakeholders involved in the case, and it delays the release of the preliminary ruling announcement until the end of June this year. This marks the second time that China has postponed the preliminary ruling on the "double anti" investigation into polysilicon imports from Europe, the U.S., and South Korea.
Industry analysts believe that this delay may be strategic, possibly to align with the EU's own preliminary ruling on Chinese PV products, which is also scheduled for June. Many in the sector speculate that this move could be an attempt to maintain leverage in ongoing trade negotiations with the EU.
In recent months, the dumping impact from imported polysilicon has continued to grow. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s polysilicon imports in February reached 7,991 tons, up 17.7% from the previous month and 4.9% year-on-year. However, the average import price fell to $17.7 per kg, a 37.1% drop compared to the same period last year, and nearly 30.2% lower than the 2012 annual average. This represents a new low in import prices.
Most of the polysilicon imports come from South Korea, the U.S., and Germany, accounting for 87.5% of total imports. These three countries are seen as key drivers behind the rising pressure on domestic producers. For instance, German imports surged by 91.9% to 2,713 tons, though the unit price dropped by 13.6% to $21.6/kg. Meanwhile, U.S. imports averaged $12.57/kg, roughly half the price during the same period last year. South Korean imports totaled 1,422 tons at $19.87/kg.
Despite the Ministry of Commerce launching the "double anti" investigation late last year, many domestic polysilicon companies continue to struggle. Although some saw hope for a turnaround, the ongoing influx of cheap imports has kept prices low and intensified the threat to local manufacturers.
Domestic production has plummeted, with first-quarter output falling below 10,000 tons — a more than 50% decline from the same period last year. Most producers are operating at a loss, and only four companies are currently maintaining production, representing less than 10% of the industry. The actual operating rate of domestic polysilicon enterprises is under 25%.
A senior executive from a leading domestic polysilicon manufacturer told the China Economic Daily that the dumping practices are devastating for the industry. Many previously operational companies have been forced to halt production due to sustained low-price competition, with some even facing bankruptcy. The investment tied to these shutdowns has exceeded 50 billion yuan.
After the bankruptcies of Zhejiang Xiecheng Silicon Industry and Ningxia Sunshine, industry insiders warn that more companies could follow if the unfair international competition persists. This could lead to a wave of closures in the coming months.
The outcome of the "double anti" preliminary ruling is crucial for the future of the domestic polysilicon industry. While foreign manufacturers may gain short-term market share through aggressive pricing, long-term consequences could see them dominate the market, leaving domestic firms at a disadvantage.
Some analysts suggest that China may not impose anti-dumping or countervailing duties on polysilicon imports from the U.S., EU, and South Korea, fearing negative impacts on downstream solar manufacturing sectors. Others argue that Chinese polysilicon producers are capable of meeting domestic demand, and imposing tariffs could stabilize prices and reduce pressure on downstream industries.
The timing of the preliminary ruling remains uncertain. Some sources suggest the Ministry of Commerce may delay the announcement until June, potentially waiting for the EU’s results before making a final decision. If the preliminary ruling is announced sooner, it could help curb the surge of dumped imports and provide much-needed relief to domestic producers.
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