Europe, the United States and South Korea low dumping impact on the domestic polysilicon industry

The Ministry of Commerce has released a revised timetable for the anti-dumping investigation into solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea, as well as the dumping subsidy investigation procedures related to anti-dumping and countervailing measures against solar-grade polysilicon imports from the U.S. and the European Union. The notice reveals that the release of the preliminary ruling has been postponed until the end of June this year. This marks the second time China has delayed the preliminary decision on the "double anti" investigation into polysilicon in Europe, the U.S., and South Korea. Industry observers believe that this delay may be strategic, possibly timed to align with the EU's own preliminary ruling on Chinese PV products, which is also scheduled for June. Some speculate that this move could be aimed at leveraging the EU’s decision as a bargaining chip in ongoing trade negotiations. In recent months, the impact of dumped polysilicon has intensified, with import volumes rising and prices continuing to fall. According to customs data, China imported 7,991 tons of polysilicon in February, up 17.7% from the previous month and 4.9% year-on-year. The average import price dropped to $17.7/kg, a 37.1% decline compared to the same period last year. This is the lowest level seen since 2012, signaling a deepening crisis for domestic producers. Most of the imported polysilicon comes from South Korea, the U.S., and Germany, accounting for 87.5% of total imports. These three countries have driven the sharp decline in import prices. For instance, German polysilicon imports surged by 91.9% to 2,713 tons, while the unit price fell by 13.6% to $21.6/kg. Imports from the U.S. dropped to $12.57/kg, roughly half the price from the same period last year. Meanwhile, South Korean imports reached 1,422 tons at a unit price of just $19.87/kg. Despite the Ministry of Commerce launching a "double anti" investigation late last year, the domestic polysilicon industry remains under severe pressure. Although the investigation was seen as a potential turning point, the ongoing low-price dumping from overseas continues to erode market share and profits. Domestic producers are struggling, with many operating at a loss or forced to shut down entirely. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, first-quarter domestic polysilicon production fell below 10,000 tons, a drop of over 50% compared to the same period last year. Only four companies remain operational, representing less than 10% of the industry, with an actual operating rate of under 25%. A senior executive from a major domestic polysilicon producer told the China Economic Times that the damage caused by dumping is extremely severe. Many previously viable manufacturers have been forced to halt operations, with investment losses exceeding 50 billion yuan. With two major companies—Zhejiang Xiecheng Silicon and Ningxia Sunshine—now bankrupt, the situation is expected to worsen if the unfair international competition persists. The "double anti" investigation is seen as a critical step for the industry to regain stability. However, the timing of the preliminary ruling remains uncertain. Some industry sources suggest that the Ministry of Commerce may delay the announcement until June, possibly to coordinate with the EU’s own decision on Chinese PV products. Analysts from Meixin Group noted that China might avoid imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on polysilicon from the U.S. and Europe due to concerns about impacting downstream industries such as solar panels and batteries. On the other hand, some industry insiders argue that China’s polysilicon sector is technologically and industrially capable of becoming the main supplier after the imposition of tariffs, helping stabilize prices and reduce costs for downstream users. Overall, the outcome of the "double anti" investigation is crucial for the long-term health of the domestic polysilicon industry. A timely preliminary ruling could curb foreign dumping and provide much-needed relief to local manufacturers. The next few months will be pivotal in determining the future of the sector.

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