Electrolytic aluminum production capacity hidden behind the hidden advantages of the West

With the rapid development of the industry in the past two years, the problems existing in the electrolytic aluminum industry, which have traditionally been referred to as “high-energy-consuming industries”, have become increasingly apparent. In the eastern region where electricity is in short supply, the electrolytic aluminum industry, which is already in a state of deficit, will no longer be competitive with the rise in electricity prices, power cuts, and the cancellation of local preferential policies. The cheap electricity and abundant coal resources in the northwest region will become the "new continent" for electrolytic aluminum investment.

"In 2012, China will also have 2.77 million tons of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity put in the northwest region, mainly because there is a wealth of coal resources, electricity prices are relatively cheap. At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum giants Shandong Xinfa, Oriental Hope, Henan Shenhuo, China Power Investment, and China Aluminum have all newly built projects in Xinjiang. "At the 7th Shanghai Copper-Alium Summit held recently, Zhang Chenguang, a senior analyst of aluminum industry, pointed out. At the same time, the reporter learned from the statistics that the new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Xinjiang will reach 11.8 million tons by 2015.

In the face of a large number of manipulative electrolytic aluminum enterprises emerging from western regions such as Xinjiang, industry insiders are concerned that the “capacity westward migration” on investment is likely to further aggravate the excess capacity in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry.

Overcapacity will repeat itself in the west?

"Last year, the capacity utilization rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was already less than 70%, and the overcapacity is already very serious." Wang Huajun, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said publicly that the current overheated construction of aluminum in the western region has caused alarm in the industry. The association also passed the report. In other forms, he repeatedly wrote a "struggling" capacity expansion disorder.

On April 20th, 2011, 9 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the “Emergency Notice on Restraining Overcapacity and Repeated Construction in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry and Leading the Healthy Development of the Industry”, requiring all localities to immediately halt the proposed electrolytic aluminum project and resolutely stop any expansion. The violation of the approval of production capacity of new projects, and cancel the local introduction of various preferential policies.

With the introduction of energy-saving and emission reduction policies by the state, many electrolytic aluminum plants were administratively reduced, but the ban did not contain the "great leap forward" type of capacity expansion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. A large number of electrolytic aluminum enterprises began to flock to the west, and their production capacity was significantly increased. Soaring.

Statistics show that as of the end of 2011, Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum plans to approve a proposed capacity of 11.05 million tons, mainly in the coal-rich areas such as Zhundong, Yili, and Shanshan, currently Shandong Xinfa Group, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhonghe Aluminum. Some companies such as China Power Investment Group were put into operation, and more projects are still in the infrastructure construction stage. Eastern Hope, Shenhuo, Qia and Tianlong Mining are expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2013.

"This year is expected to have 3.9 million tons of additional electrolytic aluminum capacity put into operation, which also means that China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach 27.1 million tons this year, and production will reach 21.89 million tons, showing that the future supply pressure is still relatively large. According to the analysis of the distribution of electrolytic aluminum production in 2011, the total output of electrolytic aluminum in the northwestern region has reached 24.2%, which exceeds that of the main electrolytic aluminum production areas - Huazhong and East China. Zhang Chenguang pointed out.

It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of this year, the "12th Five-Year Plan" of the "Aluminium Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also made it clear that under the premise of total amount control, it actively guided the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in energy-short areas to the western region rich in energy resources. Orderly transfer. Then, is the electrolytic aluminum “capacity westward migration” consistent with the current situation in which the government and the enterprises have achieved a win-win situation in the conflict?

Zhang Chenguang specifically analyzed that enterprises are intensively rooted in Xinjiang and put into production of electrolytic aluminum. The advantages are: Xinjiang has richer coal resources, and the cost of electricity is very low. At present, the price of Xinjiang's network power is 0.39 yuan/degree, if there is a self-finance cost for them. The cost of power generation is only between 0.1-0.2 yuan/degree, and the electrolytic aluminum network power in Henan is 0.62 yuan/degree. If there is self-produced power generation, their cost is usually between 0.52-0.56 yuan/degree, so only The cost of electricity will be 4000 yuan less than in Henan. Therefore, when many aluminum plants went into production in Xinjiang, the local government allocated some free coal resources to them, resulting in relatively low cost of power generation.

In addition, Xinjiang’s environmental capacity is relatively large. The local government has not limited the development of some high-energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum. The development of the local government’s electrolytic aluminum industry is still relatively positive.

“The advantages behind the advantages are also hidden. At present, the biggest disadvantage of electrolytic aluminum plants in Xinjiang is the inconvenience of transportation. Because the electrolytic aluminum plants in Xinjiang are both on the upstream and downstream, so the local aluminum plant needs to be shipped to East China or the South China Sea after producing electrolytic aluminum. Consumption in these areas of southern China requires transportation costs that are 1200 yuan/ton higher than those in Central China, and secondly, the human cost in Xinjiang is 20% to 30% higher than the labor costs in Huadong and Central China. It is the water resources in Xinjiang that are relatively limited, combined with the relatively small network load in Xinjiang, which can't carry the needs of the electrolytic aluminum plant.” Zhang Chenguang pointed out that at present, Xinjiang has actually built a lot of electrolytic aluminum plants, including the East that has been put into operation now. Hopefully, the increase in Hunan, including Shenhuo, which is about to be put into operation, they all encountered the same problem on the power grid, that is, Xinjiang's network power carrying capacity was relatively small and could not support the full opening of the electrolytic aluminum plant.

It is still difficult to change the industry's hard-to-find industry's “not profitable” dilemma. The prospects of the industry are worrying. According to public statistics, in 2011, the overall growth of investment in non-ferrous metals was higher than the increase in investment in fixed assets across the country, and the transfer of investment areas to the west was more obvious. The investment was concentrated in Xinjiang and Qinghai. , Inner Mongolia, etc. Among them, electrolytic aluminum investment is the most prominent.

During the summit, the industry’s electrolytic aluminum traders and some manufacturers’ representatives interviewed by reporters all conveyed such a concern: On the one hand, production enterprises can still find a certain profit margin in the west; on the other hand, local governments look at the electrolytic aluminum industry in the Pulling on the unique advantages in economic growth, employment, and other aspects, in both sides of this kind, the western region has expanded production and eat “cake”, but such “cooperation” will inevitably further exacerbate the excessive release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

The reporter learned that on the one hand, there is a lack of planning and management for the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to the west. On the one hand, the production capacity withdrawal mechanism in the eastern and central regions is not perfect and lacks supervision. In this way, the excess capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to increase. What is particularly noteworthy is that, behind the growth in the consumption of primary aluminum in the electrolytic aluminum industry, although the sales of aluminum ingots of the national electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still unsold, it is difficult to conceal the current situation in which the electrolytic aluminum companies have difficulties in operating and “make money difficult”.

“In recent years, China’s electrolytic aluminum has been in a state of a year-on-year increase, even if it is in the financial crisis, it will maintain a positive growth. In 2011, China’s electrolytic aluminum market showed a small supply shortage. With the increase in the amount of aluminum used in transportation and the construction of affordable housing, it is expected that the entire amount of aluminum used in China will continue to increase in the future, but its growth rate will surely encounter a certain decline.” In this regard, SMM expects that China’s The consumption of primary aluminum will reach 22 million tons, and the growth rate will be about 9%. The supply and demand will basically balance. ”

According to estimates, the average total cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China is around 16,500 yuan/ton, but the current aluminum price is 15900-16,000 yuan. This means that the electrolytic aluminum company's average loss per 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum should reach 500 yuan.

“The largest proportion of electrolytic aluminum companies’ main cost is the cost of electricity, which reached 40.4%. Last year, due to the inversion of the entire coal price, the state has raised the price of industrial electricity in China twice in order to support the power plant. This has also led directly to the The entire electrolytic aluminum company has a high cost and a relatively serious loss," said Zhang Chenguang.

When talking about the prospects of China's aluminum industry, Zhang Lei, a researcher at the Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, also pointed out that at present, idle electrolytic aluminum production capacity will also cause a lot of money wasted. He said, "Our real estate and the future '12th Five-Year' macro-control implementation is strong, I estimate that the increase in the demand for bulk metal products, growth will not be as fast as before, so the aluminum companies continue to expand their production capacity endlessly. There is no way out in the country. There is no way out. It's best to go outside."