First-half sales of nitrogen fertilizer fall in Shandong
In the first half of this year, the overall sales of fertilizers in Shandong remained relatively stable compared to the previous year. However, the market for phosphate and potash fertilizers was still affected by falling prices, leading to a decline in sales in certain regions. This trend reflects a broader shift in fertilizer usage habits among farmers in the province.
Since reaching a peak of 50.3 million tons (recovery) in 2007, the use of chemical fertilizers in Shandong has been on a steady decline. Despite no significant reduction in the area of cultivated land, the decrease in chemical fertilizer usage is primarily due to changes in farming practices. Private enterprises in Shandong have led the way in introducing and improving compound fertilizer varieties, along with new techniques such as one-time fertilization and seed fertilizer application. As a result, the use of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers has gradually declined, with nitrogen showing the most noticeable drop. At the same time, the increased use of compound fertilizers has contributed to a more efficient and optimized approach to fertilizer application, ultimately reducing overall fertilizer consumption in the region.
This year, however, has brought some unique conditions. The price of nitrogen fertilizers has fallen significantly since the start of the year, which has helped maintain relatively strong sales. Unlike previous years, there hasn't been a sharp decline in nitrogen fertilizer sales.
With the corn top-dressing season now underway, many areas have experienced delayed application due to recent rainfall. As a result, the top-dressing process is just beginning. The sluggish market in the first half of the year has carried over into the second half, causing some grassroots dealers to be cautious about inventory. Overall stock levels remain low. Additionally, some manufacturers have reduced or suspended production, leading to limited shipment volumes. These factors contributed to a temporary rise in urea prices around two weeks ago. However, the impact of this price increase on the market has been minimal, with only symbolic price hikes observed in other provinces. The main significance of the adjustment has been to boost market confidence, though actual transactions remain limited. With the peak season approaching its end, urea prices are expected to fall back, possibly even below pre-adjustment levels. Currently, the factory price of urea in Shandong remains stable at approximately 1,700 yuan per ton.
Corn top-dressing and distribution have already been completed, similar to other crops. The sales peak for corn top-dressing is not very pronounced, and the sales period has also shortened. Most farmers in Shandong use diammonium as a base fertilizer early in the growing season. However, the demand for diammonium in the agricultural market has largely subsided, and its usage is expected to drop sharply in the second half of the year. The operating rate of monoammonium production facilities remains low, with limited sales volume.
Regarding compound fertilizers, early manufacturers attempted to lower ex-factory prices to stimulate the market, but the effect was minimal. Dealers were reluctant to take large quantities. Currently, they mainly sell high-nitrogen compound fertilizers and often supplement with urea when applying fertilizer to corn.
As in previous years, phosphorus compound fertilizers continue to play a key role in the fall preparation market. Many manufacturers have already announced relevant policies. Given the current situation, it would be difficult for manufacturers to collect payments if they adopt a buyout model. Therefore, most manufacturers have opted for joint sales strategies, sharing risks with distributors. However, with warranty periods typically lasting only two months, distributor enthusiasm remains low. Most dealers are in a wait-and-see mode, taking only small amounts of goods. The grassroots market has not yet fully kicked off, and it is expected to begin at the earliest by the end of this month, with the full market likely to pick up in August.
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