Ye Tan: Do not make excuses for the oil shortage
China's oil shortage is cyclical and will inevitably enter into painful periods every year. This year, it has become increasingly fierce and has become the most persistent shortage of diesel fuel for several years. The refueling vehicle that stretches over several tens of miles across the Sichuan-Shaanxi border is a powerful complaint against China's oil shortages that impair economic efficiency. .
At present, the oil shortage is slightly eased, as long as the mechanism does not change, once the oil price begins to play, we can expect the arrival of the next oil shortage.
There are several grounds for justifying the oil shortage.
Short-term rises in oil prices this year are unlikely to explain cyclical oil shortages. What's more, global crude oil prices are currently in a period of turmoil, with no significant rise or fall.
The so-called tension between supply and demand is nothing more than nothing. By the end of 2009, the primary processing capacity of crude oil in China soared from 276 million tons in 2000 to 477 million tons. In the ten years since the 21st century, China’s oil refining capacity has surged by 72.8%. Sinopec has become the world’s third-largest oil refining company. Eighth. According to the estimation of relevant departments such as the National Energy Administration, due to the country’s new refining capacity of more than 20 million tons in 2010, the overall market for refined oil products, including the diesel market, will still exceed supply. Since this year, Petrochemical and Sinopec and other refinery companies have been worried about excessive diesel production capacity. As a big oil refining country, China’s capacity is never tight. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September of this year, the national output of diesel oil increased by about 15% compared with the same period of last year, and the capacity in the first nine months reached 89 million tons. There is no shortage of production capacity.
The so-called private capital speculation is to find scapegoats. Private oil-refining companies are in a state of starvation, and Han Baolin, vice president of the National Association of Industry and Commerce Petroleum Industry Chamber of Commerce, said that the current national private-owned enterprises’ refining capacity is about 100 million tons, but the reality is that Only about 50 million tons of "raw materials" can be obtained, and "hungry" is common. Private enterprises can only make profits through the refinery's downstream fine chemicals, and the supply of refined oil to the market is limited. The control of raw materials, the control of wholesales, and the fact that they are too much of a person are really the organs that count. Even if the oil trader is licking oil, how much of a wave can be set off, and the oil giants themselves can pump oil. What else can the market do?
Since power cuts and road logistics are not the main cause of diesel oil shortage, China’s road logistics has not surged this year. The impact of power cuts is limited in some areas, and it is unlikely that a full-scale oil shortage will occur.
The main reason is that the oil giant's slowness in production and prices, and the misjudgment in market judgment, have no reason to believe that the oil shortage is fearless is the main reason.
Under the expectation of overcapacity, PetroChina and Sinopec, the two giants, began to increase their exports in order to digest their inventory, and even at low prices. Data from Customs showed that the export volume of refined oil in the first three quarters of the year was 21.02 million tons, an increase of 23.4% year-on-year, of which 2.09 million tons of refined oil was exported and 386,100 tons of diesel was exported in September, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. At the same time, customs statistics show that in September and October, the average price of refined oil exports decreased significantly. As early as May of this year, the "First Financial Daily" reported that the two giants exported overseas at a price 10% lower than the pre-tax price of domestic refined oil, and at the same time repeatedly sought to increase the price of refined oil products in the country.
Oil booms broke out on a large scale and the oil giants began to rush into imports. PetroChina imported 200,000 tons of diesel oil overseas to relieve its urgent needs. CNPC announced that on November 19, 35,000 tons of imported diesel oil will be officially on shore, and the coastal diesel market will soon be put in place.
Looking at the situation over the years, China generally has the following types of oil shortages: When oil prices increase sharply and refined oil prices do not rise, oil companies will have pique gas shortages, mainly due to overhauls in refineries, and the market only seeks for mercy; excessive storage oils Absolutely, as oil prices rose steadily and the price of refined oil products rose, the oil companies laughed and opened up large-scale stocks. Unexpectedly, the market was drastically changed. They had to expand exports while ignoring domestic demand. There was also a forced-oil shortage, and oil refining companies suffered losses. The cost of excuse will increase the market price of listed public companies and reduce the wholesale of private oil merchants. As a result, private merchants will have no oil to sell, and they will have to close their doors.
The oil giant, which should have become a dry city in China, has disrupted the market cycle, exacerbated inflationary fears, reduced economic efficiency, and made markets less secure.
Recently, the National Association of Industry and Commerce Petroleum Chamber of Commerce wrote to the Ministry of Commerce, proposed cultivating diversified oil market entities, establishing a fair market access system, promoting private petroleum and petrochemical enterprises to enter various fields in the middle and lower reaches of oil, and establishing a tradable oil trading platform. It is hoped that large and small enterprises can conduct transactions and thus release the right to import oil. The orderly entry of private enterprises under management and the opening of import rights of large private oil companies are the ultimate solution to the oil shortage.
The cyclical oil shortage is a joint product of price distortion, price dullness, and monopoly. The glass ceiling is not broken, and the oil shortage cannot be alleviated.
One year's oil shortage, how can you afford to buy high-priced oil, how can you afford to eat instant noodles drivers in the tens of miles in the row in the middle of the winter?
At present, the oil shortage is slightly eased, as long as the mechanism does not change, once the oil price begins to play, we can expect the arrival of the next oil shortage.
There are several grounds for justifying the oil shortage.
Short-term rises in oil prices this year are unlikely to explain cyclical oil shortages. What's more, global crude oil prices are currently in a period of turmoil, with no significant rise or fall.
The so-called tension between supply and demand is nothing more than nothing. By the end of 2009, the primary processing capacity of crude oil in China soared from 276 million tons in 2000 to 477 million tons. In the ten years since the 21st century, China’s oil refining capacity has surged by 72.8%. Sinopec has become the world’s third-largest oil refining company. Eighth. According to the estimation of relevant departments such as the National Energy Administration, due to the country’s new refining capacity of more than 20 million tons in 2010, the overall market for refined oil products, including the diesel market, will still exceed supply. Since this year, Petrochemical and Sinopec and other refinery companies have been worried about excessive diesel production capacity. As a big oil refining country, China’s capacity is never tight. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September of this year, the national output of diesel oil increased by about 15% compared with the same period of last year, and the capacity in the first nine months reached 89 million tons. There is no shortage of production capacity.
The so-called private capital speculation is to find scapegoats. Private oil-refining companies are in a state of starvation, and Han Baolin, vice president of the National Association of Industry and Commerce Petroleum Industry Chamber of Commerce, said that the current national private-owned enterprises’ refining capacity is about 100 million tons, but the reality is that Only about 50 million tons of "raw materials" can be obtained, and "hungry" is common. Private enterprises can only make profits through the refinery's downstream fine chemicals, and the supply of refined oil to the market is limited. The control of raw materials, the control of wholesales, and the fact that they are too much of a person are really the organs that count. Even if the oil trader is licking oil, how much of a wave can be set off, and the oil giants themselves can pump oil. What else can the market do?
Since power cuts and road logistics are not the main cause of diesel oil shortage, China’s road logistics has not surged this year. The impact of power cuts is limited in some areas, and it is unlikely that a full-scale oil shortage will occur.
The main reason is that the oil giant's slowness in production and prices, and the misjudgment in market judgment, have no reason to believe that the oil shortage is fearless is the main reason.
Under the expectation of overcapacity, PetroChina and Sinopec, the two giants, began to increase their exports in order to digest their inventory, and even at low prices. Data from Customs showed that the export volume of refined oil in the first three quarters of the year was 21.02 million tons, an increase of 23.4% year-on-year, of which 2.09 million tons of refined oil was exported and 386,100 tons of diesel was exported in September, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. At the same time, customs statistics show that in September and October, the average price of refined oil exports decreased significantly. As early as May of this year, the "First Financial Daily" reported that the two giants exported overseas at a price 10% lower than the pre-tax price of domestic refined oil, and at the same time repeatedly sought to increase the price of refined oil products in the country.
Oil booms broke out on a large scale and the oil giants began to rush into imports. PetroChina imported 200,000 tons of diesel oil overseas to relieve its urgent needs. CNPC announced that on November 19, 35,000 tons of imported diesel oil will be officially on shore, and the coastal diesel market will soon be put in place.
Looking at the situation over the years, China generally has the following types of oil shortages: When oil prices increase sharply and refined oil prices do not rise, oil companies will have pique gas shortages, mainly due to overhauls in refineries, and the market only seeks for mercy; excessive storage oils Absolutely, as oil prices rose steadily and the price of refined oil products rose, the oil companies laughed and opened up large-scale stocks. Unexpectedly, the market was drastically changed. They had to expand exports while ignoring domestic demand. There was also a forced-oil shortage, and oil refining companies suffered losses. The cost of excuse will increase the market price of listed public companies and reduce the wholesale of private oil merchants. As a result, private merchants will have no oil to sell, and they will have to close their doors.
The oil giant, which should have become a dry city in China, has disrupted the market cycle, exacerbated inflationary fears, reduced economic efficiency, and made markets less secure.
Recently, the National Association of Industry and Commerce Petroleum Chamber of Commerce wrote to the Ministry of Commerce, proposed cultivating diversified oil market entities, establishing a fair market access system, promoting private petroleum and petrochemical enterprises to enter various fields in the middle and lower reaches of oil, and establishing a tradable oil trading platform. It is hoped that large and small enterprises can conduct transactions and thus release the right to import oil. The orderly entry of private enterprises under management and the opening of import rights of large private oil companies are the ultimate solution to the oil shortage.
The cyclical oil shortage is a joint product of price distortion, price dullness, and monopoly. The glass ceiling is not broken, and the oil shortage cannot be alleviated.
One year's oil shortage, how can you afford to buy high-priced oil, how can you afford to eat instant noodles drivers in the tens of miles in the row in the middle of the winter?