Oil prices cannot be used as macroeconomic control measures
Zhou Dadi, former director of the National Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association, interpreted the adjustment of oil prices.
The adjustment of oil prices should not be a macro-control measure. "The oil price adjustment was forced and the adjustment was very small. It is in line with the adjustment of international oil prices," Zhou said. Since the price cut for domestic gasoline and diesel on June 1 this year, crude oil prices in the international market continued to fluctu- ate between US$70-80 per barrel. During the period, there were two times a decrease of nearly 4% in mid-July and mid-September, but due to the international market The oil price quickly rebounded, and ultimately did not reach the 4% price adjustment boundary conditions. Since the end of September, oil prices in the international market have quickly risen to more than 80 US dollars per barrel, an increase of more than 4%, reaching the timing of price adjustment.
The National Bureau of Statistics just announced that the CPI for September rose 3.6% year-on-year, hitting a new high in the past 23 months. Some analysts believe that the price of oil will not increase in the near future due to social affordability. So to what extent will the increase in oil prices affect this data? Zhou Dadi believes that the price of refined oil cannot be used as a means of macro-control, but should be a kind of management of refined oil prices under the current economic system, which should be adjusted in line with international oil prices. “The NDRC was really cautious after the release of CPI. However, it cannot be said that the high CPI level is dared to move at all. It is not necessarily the right thing to do. It is not advisable to use domestic policies to filter out factors that affect international oil price changes."
For a long time, China’s imported crude oil accounts for over half of the total crude oil. According to data from the National Energy Administration, the country’s imports of crude oil in the first three quarters of this year totaled 181 million tons, an increase of 24.1%. Moreover, the number of cars in our country has exceeded 85 million, and Super Japan has become the second largest country in the world. "In this case, China has increasingly become an important factor in promoting the rise of international oil prices, and oil prices will only go up." Zhou Dadi said.
As regards the impact on price levels, Zhou Dadi believes that the impact is not as large as imagined, because oil prices account for a small proportion of the country’s people’s consumption, and there are less than 10% of the total car population. Housing prices, food prices, and medical prices have a greater impact on people's lives.
The pricing of enterprises is also a kind of reform. Since the implementation of the reform of refined oil prices and taxes, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 12 adjustments, basically rationalizing the prices of refined products, mobilizing the enthusiasm of enterprises, ensuring market supply, and promoting market competition. It played an important role. However, it has also been criticized by many voices. "It's a little bit of a thankless task," said Zhou Dadi. The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission also said in response to reporters that there have been some problems in the operation of the price mechanism. For example, if the adjustment cycle of refined oil prices is too long, it may easily lead to speculation. It also stated that the new refined oil price adjustment mechanism will strive to be launched during the year, and will have a much larger adjustment than the current mechanism, so that it will be more transparent and effective.
Zhou Dadi said that the current adjustment mechanism for refined oil prices is to determine the price of oil by looking at the price for a period of time. It can only reflect what has already happened and cannot reflect what is happening and what will happen, and it may indeed cause hoarding. The next step should be to increase flexibility and speed up adjustments to prevent capital speculation.
He also put forward another reform idea: that is, letting companies set their own prices, and the state will use taxation to ease social conflicts. “It is not impossible to implement this road in our country, but companies and related departments need to be prepared. At that time, the price of oil may be slightly higher or similar than it is now, and it will not necessarily happen because of oligopolistic competition. Because so many countries in the world are."
The adjustment of oil prices should not be a macro-control measure. "The oil price adjustment was forced and the adjustment was very small. It is in line with the adjustment of international oil prices," Zhou said. Since the price cut for domestic gasoline and diesel on June 1 this year, crude oil prices in the international market continued to fluctu- ate between US$70-80 per barrel. During the period, there were two times a decrease of nearly 4% in mid-July and mid-September, but due to the international market The oil price quickly rebounded, and ultimately did not reach the 4% price adjustment boundary conditions. Since the end of September, oil prices in the international market have quickly risen to more than 80 US dollars per barrel, an increase of more than 4%, reaching the timing of price adjustment.
The National Bureau of Statistics just announced that the CPI for September rose 3.6% year-on-year, hitting a new high in the past 23 months. Some analysts believe that the price of oil will not increase in the near future due to social affordability. So to what extent will the increase in oil prices affect this data? Zhou Dadi believes that the price of refined oil cannot be used as a means of macro-control, but should be a kind of management of refined oil prices under the current economic system, which should be adjusted in line with international oil prices. “The NDRC was really cautious after the release of CPI. However, it cannot be said that the high CPI level is dared to move at all. It is not necessarily the right thing to do. It is not advisable to use domestic policies to filter out factors that affect international oil price changes."
For a long time, China’s imported crude oil accounts for over half of the total crude oil. According to data from the National Energy Administration, the country’s imports of crude oil in the first three quarters of this year totaled 181 million tons, an increase of 24.1%. Moreover, the number of cars in our country has exceeded 85 million, and Super Japan has become the second largest country in the world. "In this case, China has increasingly become an important factor in promoting the rise of international oil prices, and oil prices will only go up." Zhou Dadi said.
As regards the impact on price levels, Zhou Dadi believes that the impact is not as large as imagined, because oil prices account for a small proportion of the country’s people’s consumption, and there are less than 10% of the total car population. Housing prices, food prices, and medical prices have a greater impact on people's lives.
The pricing of enterprises is also a kind of reform. Since the implementation of the reform of refined oil prices and taxes, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 12 adjustments, basically rationalizing the prices of refined products, mobilizing the enthusiasm of enterprises, ensuring market supply, and promoting market competition. It played an important role. However, it has also been criticized by many voices. "It's a little bit of a thankless task," said Zhou Dadi. The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission also said in response to reporters that there have been some problems in the operation of the price mechanism. For example, if the adjustment cycle of refined oil prices is too long, it may easily lead to speculation. It also stated that the new refined oil price adjustment mechanism will strive to be launched during the year, and will have a much larger adjustment than the current mechanism, so that it will be more transparent and effective.
Zhou Dadi said that the current adjustment mechanism for refined oil prices is to determine the price of oil by looking at the price for a period of time. It can only reflect what has already happened and cannot reflect what is happening and what will happen, and it may indeed cause hoarding. The next step should be to increase flexibility and speed up adjustments to prevent capital speculation.
He also put forward another reform idea: that is, letting companies set their own prices, and the state will use taxation to ease social conflicts. “It is not impossible to implement this road in our country, but companies and related departments need to be prepared. At that time, the price of oil may be slightly higher or similar than it is now, and it will not necessarily happen because of oligopolistic competition. Because so many countries in the world are."