Photovoltaic 2013: Shrinking business pursues stability

The era of photovoltaic profiteering has been gone forever in 2011. At present, if a company can lose less in the photovoltaic industry, it is a very face-saving thing. The EU's double-reaction against China's PV will not be finalized until the end of 2013, which means that we will suffer in the shadow of double-reverse in 2013, which is the main tone of the year. In fact, the results are basically predictable, that is, they will not be better than the final rule of the United States. Everyone should let go of their illusions and prepare in advance.

Enterprises should shrink their front lines and retreat. Use limited cash flow in the most demanding, best-handed, and most central places. Spreading the net, you may not be able to fish more. What's more, most companies don't have the capital to “spread the net.” The wider the net, the faster it will die. The entire industry chain model can be terminated, and it does not meet the current global economic recession. Don't go to the ranking of the annual shipments. The more you go, the more you lose, the less meaningful.

The price of polysilicon fell to 15 US dollars per kilogram, which may be less than the cost. But if your polysilicon line is still less than 30 US dollars per kilogram, you can decisively withdraw, even if China starts to impose 100% on overseas polysilicon double reverse. The tariffs will not save you. Unless you have enough money to do a cold hydrogenation retrofit, the technical risks are high and you need to weigh it.

Silicon wafer companies can focus on quasi-single crystals and strive to increase battery efficiency significantly with increased cost. In addition, diamond cutting lines can be developed to reduce losses. The battery segment should focus on the development of high-efficiency battery technology. The new structure batteries with industrial prospects include selective emitter cells, heterojunction cells, back main gate cells and N-type batteries. If the battery line of Dalu goods has no money to renovate, it can be decisively eliminated.

The component is the lowest technical content of the industrial chain. It is completely considered that the production line should not be built in the domestic market. On the one hand, it bypasses the double reverse. On the one hand, the wage cost of the mainland has lost its advantage over Southeast Asia. As far as I know, several major manufacturers have already started to transfer production lines. This is a very sensible approach, leaving some capacity to cope with the domestic market.

Due to the downturn in the market, many battery companies are forced to extend downstream and develop their own photovoltaic power plants. I don't know if this is the most dangerous road. A power station is a project that requires a lot of money. When you invest huge sums of money to turn inventory into a power station, can the power station be connected to the grid, and whether the Internet can generate electricity in full, whether it can receive electricity and subsidies, and receive electricity. Whether the power station can be shot is unknown. The project operation of the power station and the manufacture of the panels are completely different business areas. Not the average person can get involved. I feel that this is a bit like a patient with arteriosclerosis that is already ill-treated. It is no problem to have a conservative treatment for 5 years. You have to have a heart bypass surgery. If you play a big one, you may die faster.

In 2013, we will shrink our business scope, pursue a stable business model, find a differentiated route, and ensure positive cash flow. Your company may live to the dawn of photovoltaic spring.

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