International Energy Agency predicts that major changes will occur in the global oil market
According to the French media, the International Energy Agency said in its annual report on the 13th that it is necessary to wait until 2040 to observe the decline in oil consumption. Prior to this, demand will grow by 12% and reach 16 million barrels per day after 22 years.
According to the French "Echo" website reported on November 17, this is slightly higher than the previous forecast, mainly because the International Energy Agency considered this year Trump announced the relaxation of carbon emission standards for US automakers.
According to the report, if the growth of demand is unstoppable, then the world's largest oil-consuming countries and oil-producing countries will gradually change.
Until 2025, the annual growth rate of global oil demand will increase by 1 million barrels per day. After that, the growth rate will be slower, increasing the daily demand by 250,000 barrels.
But behind this general growth, there is a hidden imbalance in development. In fact, oil consumption in developed countries will decline, and by 2040, the annual decline will be about 400,000 barrels per day. This is mainly due to the efforts of the energy economy.
The report said that the era of North America, the European Union and China occupying the top three oil consumption has passed.
The oil consumption of the EU has fallen greatly. In the next 22 years, EU oil consumption will shrink by 42.3% to 6.4 million barrels per day. The US oil consumption will also shrink, and the demand will be reduced by 16%. Although it will remain on the "Podium", it will retreat to the second place from 2035 and will give the "champion" to China.
The report said that the reduction in Western oil consumption will be largely offset by the continued rapid growth of oil consumption in China, India and the Middle East. China's oil consumption rate will reach 15.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 28.5%. Demand in the Middle East will grow by 43%, occupying the third place, ahead of India - India's oil consumption will be equivalent to the EU and Russia.
Finally, Africa’s oil demand will also grow strongly, with a daily fuel consumption of about 6 million barrels by 2040. This is mainly due to the development of road traffic: from 2017 to 2040, the number of cars in Africa will more than double.
Then there was a question: Can the oil supply keep up with demand? By 2040, the global oil production is expected to be 103 million barrels per day, which is lower than the demand of consumers.
Until 2025, nearly 60% of oil production will be guaranteed by countries other than OPEC, such as the United States, Russia, Argentina or Brazil. But gradually, their market share will be reduced by 5 percentage points. The United States will maintain its position as the largest oil producer with 16% of global oil production.
In contrast, the OPEC countries will expand their power, and by 2040, their oil production will account for 45% of the world. Within OPEC, the Middle East will have the largest market share, which is not good for countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya and Angola.
As the world's second-largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia's production will increase by 10.8% by 2040, while the United States will increase by 22%. With the help of shale oil, the US oil production will remain the number one in the world. The shale oil will undergo an unusual development and will account for 40% of the US oil production by 2040.
According to the report, the Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, commented: “More than 70% of global energy investment will be driven by the government. Therefore, the message is clear: the fate of global energy depends on the government’s Decision making and policy."
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