Analysis of China's nickel market trend in 2010
1. Output In 2010, when nickel production in major countries in the world was still affecting production for events such as **, nickel production in China quickly rose. Antaike estimated that the annual output of primary nickel reached 322,000 tons, an increase of 15% year-on-year. Among them, the output of electrolytic nickel was 157,000 tons, accounting for 48%, the production of nickel-containing pig iron was about 150,000 tons, accounting for 47% of the total output, and the output of nickel salt was about 16,000 tons of metal, accounting for 5%. Because the supply of raw materials for the Vale Dalian plant due to Sudbury** was insufficient, the output of this part of 2010 was significantly lower than that of 2009. The increase in primary nickel production in China in 2010 was almost entirely from nickel-containing pig iron.
Nickel-containing pig iron is a “new thing†brought about by the high price of nickel in recent years. It provides a large amount of cheap nickel raw materials for the development of stainless steel enterprises in China, and the amount of nickel metal provided in a short period of five years is as high as 150,000 tons. In the future, many enterprises in China still want to launch nickel-bearing iron or nickel-iron projects. There are more than 30 projects with nearly 1 million tons of production capacity. Because of nickel ore supply, technology, and other issues, although it is not certain that all of these projects can be put into production, even if one third of them are put into production, the impact on China and the global nickel market will be enormous.
The emergence of nickel-containing pig iron has changed the raw material structure of China’s stainless steel plants. It is supplemented mainly by electrolytic nickel/imported nickel-iron and nickel-containing pig iron, and is currently dominated by nickel-nickel and nickel-containing pig iron. Imported nickel-iron is Supplementary situation. Nowadays, many companies are not only concerned with the production cost of nickel-containing pig iron because when the nickel price exceeds 18,000 US dollars (taking into account environmental protection factors, we increase the marginal production cost of nickel-containing pig iron from 15,000 USD/t to 18,000 USD/t), Almost all nickel pig iron plants can operate. If there is no problem with the supply of raw ore, theoretically, China’s nickel-iron can be supplied without restrictions. So many companies are concerned about the market capacity of nickel iron in China and even the world in the end how much? Here we compare the data from the French Eramet company on global nickel-iron production. Taking the global nickel production of 1.34 million tons in 2009, the proportion of ferronickel in the total production is about 17%, which is equivalent to the amount of 228,000 tons of nickel metal. In 2009, the global nickel consumption was about 1.3 million tons, of which the stainless steel industry accounted for 65% of nickel, and the stainless steel industry consumed nickel 845,000 tons. From a global perspective, the total nickel content in the stainless steel industry accounts for a proportion of nickel and iron. 27%. Calculated by the same method, in 2009 China's stainless steel industry used about 340,000 tons of nickel, including China's self-produced ferronickel production of about 100,000 tons of nickel metal, plus imports of nearly 70,000 tons of nickel and iron metal, that is, In China, the amount of nickel used in the stainless steel industry accounts for 50% of nickel iron, which is already higher than the international average.
The stainless steel companies in China have been indifferent to ferro-nickel and iron, and they are now using nickel-iron in large quantities. In the future, they will also increase the use ratio. The main reason is that the price of nickel in ferro-nickel, which is commonly used in international trade, is almost the same as that of LME nickel. Only when the market is extremely weak is there a slight discount. Once the bull market, the iron in it will also be partially valued. The sale of nickel-containing pig iron in China is quite different. The price of nickel is equivalent to 90% of the market price. With 10% of nickel iron, 1t of nickel will be sent to steel 9t iron, which is very attractive to steel mills.
With the commissioning of some large-scale and advanced nickel-iron projects, the production of nickel-containing pig iron/nickel iron in China will increase steadily, and its proportion in the total primary nickel production will surely exceed that of nickel metal.
2. Consumption In 2010, China’s primary nickel consumption was approximately 505,000 t, an increase of 12% from the same period of last year. During the period from 2003 to 2010, nickel used in the stainless steel industry accounted for 77%, which is still the main nickel consumption field in China. However, due to the large number of applications of nickel-containing pig iron, the use of electrolytic nickel in the stainless steel industry has shown a downward trend. From 2003 to 2010, the average growth rate of nickel consumption in China was 20%, which was mainly driven by the amount of nickel used in the stainless steel industry. In the next few years, stainless steel production in China will increase steadily, but with the adjustment of the stainless steel structure and the increase in the use of waste stainless steel, the nickel consumption in the stainless steel industry will remain relatively stable. However, in recent years, as the global research and development of new energy vehicles, especially hybrid vehicles, has continued to heat up, the use of nickel in the battery industry is of concern.
Although the total amount of nickel used in the battery industry is not large, there are many companies involved, and many of them are very dynamic research and development companies. With more and more specific policies and measures for the development of the country's power cars, the use of nickel in the battery industry will be the focus of future industry development. In 2005, the amount of nickel used in the battery industry was approximately 18,900 tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total nickel consumption in the year. Since then, nickel consumption has been declining slowly in the battery industry as the price of nickel has soared. However, this trend was reversed in 2010. . On the one hand, the production and export volume of nickel-based batteries have increased with the recovery of the global economy, stimulating the increase in the consumption of conventional nickel-containing materials such as nickel foam, hydrogen storage alloys, and ball nickel, in addition to the current domestic and foreign hybrid vehicles. The most promising is the ternary material lithium-ion battery. The cathode material of nickel-cobalt-manganese-lithium contains 25-30% of nickel. Lithium-ion batteries used in future hybrid cars will also drive nickel consumption in the battery industry.
3. Looking ahead to judge the future trend, whether it is macroscopic or microscopic, the most internationally mentioned is the uncertainty of the future global economic trend. At present, the unemployment rate in the United States is as high as 9.3%. On November 2, the United States announced further implementation. Quantitative easing monetary policy further highlighted the lack of internal growth in the United States economy. In addition, both Japan and Europe maintain low interest rates ranging from 0 to 0.25%. Although the global economy is not at the bottom, it is also a slow recovery and a difficult transition. The United States tried to use the depreciation of the US dollar to reduce its huge foreign debt, and at the same time gradually restore the manufacturing industry. China wants to transform from a low-end manufacturing industry and gradually develop a strategic new industry. Everyone wants to turn gorgeously to break the previous trade pattern, but in the process of turning around There are some collisions that cannot be avoided. This is the main reason why the exchange rate wars and trade frictions intensify in various countries.
In the complicated international and domestic environment, it is very difficult to predict the nickel price in the future. There are four major factors that affect the market: the dollar exchange rate; second, investor confidence; third, supply fundamentals; and fourth, technological progress. Negative correlation between the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the underlying metal is a high probability event; investor confidence basically reflects the development trend of the global economy, especially the consumption outlook; the supply side reflects the price-led, marginal production cost as the core. The industry’s supply potential; technological advances can fundamentally change people’s lifestyles, leading to huge changes in the demand for raw materials. So far, there has not been any Internet-level technology and its industrialization. If any, the development of new energy vehicles, especially hybrid electric vehicles, should be one of the directions. However, it should be pointed out that nickel is widely used in hybrid car batteries. The premise is that the nickel price is relatively stable or slightly lower, otherwise the high cost of the power battery also hinders its large-scale application.
It is now relatively consistent that the major trend of dollar devaluation will support the long-term trend of nickel prices. However, in the short term, due to the higher price increase of nickel than that of the previous period, the fourth quarter was in an adjusted state. The spot price of LME nickel in 2010 is expected to be 21,422 USdollars/t. In 2011, with the slow recovery of the global economy and the depreciation of the US dollar, the nickel price will rise back to the level of US$2,400/t.
Nickel-containing pig iron is a “new thing†brought about by the high price of nickel in recent years. It provides a large amount of cheap nickel raw materials for the development of stainless steel enterprises in China, and the amount of nickel metal provided in a short period of five years is as high as 150,000 tons. In the future, many enterprises in China still want to launch nickel-bearing iron or nickel-iron projects. There are more than 30 projects with nearly 1 million tons of production capacity. Because of nickel ore supply, technology, and other issues, although it is not certain that all of these projects can be put into production, even if one third of them are put into production, the impact on China and the global nickel market will be enormous.
The emergence of nickel-containing pig iron has changed the raw material structure of China’s stainless steel plants. It is supplemented mainly by electrolytic nickel/imported nickel-iron and nickel-containing pig iron, and is currently dominated by nickel-nickel and nickel-containing pig iron. Imported nickel-iron is Supplementary situation. Nowadays, many companies are not only concerned with the production cost of nickel-containing pig iron because when the nickel price exceeds 18,000 US dollars (taking into account environmental protection factors, we increase the marginal production cost of nickel-containing pig iron from 15,000 USD/t to 18,000 USD/t), Almost all nickel pig iron plants can operate. If there is no problem with the supply of raw ore, theoretically, China’s nickel-iron can be supplied without restrictions. So many companies are concerned about the market capacity of nickel iron in China and even the world in the end how much? Here we compare the data from the French Eramet company on global nickel-iron production. Taking the global nickel production of 1.34 million tons in 2009, the proportion of ferronickel in the total production is about 17%, which is equivalent to the amount of 228,000 tons of nickel metal. In 2009, the global nickel consumption was about 1.3 million tons, of which the stainless steel industry accounted for 65% of nickel, and the stainless steel industry consumed nickel 845,000 tons. From a global perspective, the total nickel content in the stainless steel industry accounts for a proportion of nickel and iron. 27%. Calculated by the same method, in 2009 China's stainless steel industry used about 340,000 tons of nickel, including China's self-produced ferronickel production of about 100,000 tons of nickel metal, plus imports of nearly 70,000 tons of nickel and iron metal, that is, In China, the amount of nickel used in the stainless steel industry accounts for 50% of nickel iron, which is already higher than the international average.
The stainless steel companies in China have been indifferent to ferro-nickel and iron, and they are now using nickel-iron in large quantities. In the future, they will also increase the use ratio. The main reason is that the price of nickel in ferro-nickel, which is commonly used in international trade, is almost the same as that of LME nickel. Only when the market is extremely weak is there a slight discount. Once the bull market, the iron in it will also be partially valued. The sale of nickel-containing pig iron in China is quite different. The price of nickel is equivalent to 90% of the market price. With 10% of nickel iron, 1t of nickel will be sent to steel 9t iron, which is very attractive to steel mills.
With the commissioning of some large-scale and advanced nickel-iron projects, the production of nickel-containing pig iron/nickel iron in China will increase steadily, and its proportion in the total primary nickel production will surely exceed that of nickel metal.
2. Consumption In 2010, China’s primary nickel consumption was approximately 505,000 t, an increase of 12% from the same period of last year. During the period from 2003 to 2010, nickel used in the stainless steel industry accounted for 77%, which is still the main nickel consumption field in China. However, due to the large number of applications of nickel-containing pig iron, the use of electrolytic nickel in the stainless steel industry has shown a downward trend. From 2003 to 2010, the average growth rate of nickel consumption in China was 20%, which was mainly driven by the amount of nickel used in the stainless steel industry. In the next few years, stainless steel production in China will increase steadily, but with the adjustment of the stainless steel structure and the increase in the use of waste stainless steel, the nickel consumption in the stainless steel industry will remain relatively stable. However, in recent years, as the global research and development of new energy vehicles, especially hybrid vehicles, has continued to heat up, the use of nickel in the battery industry is of concern.
Although the total amount of nickel used in the battery industry is not large, there are many companies involved, and many of them are very dynamic research and development companies. With more and more specific policies and measures for the development of the country's power cars, the use of nickel in the battery industry will be the focus of future industry development. In 2005, the amount of nickel used in the battery industry was approximately 18,900 tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total nickel consumption in the year. Since then, nickel consumption has been declining slowly in the battery industry as the price of nickel has soared. However, this trend was reversed in 2010. . On the one hand, the production and export volume of nickel-based batteries have increased with the recovery of the global economy, stimulating the increase in the consumption of conventional nickel-containing materials such as nickel foam, hydrogen storage alloys, and ball nickel, in addition to the current domestic and foreign hybrid vehicles. The most promising is the ternary material lithium-ion battery. The cathode material of nickel-cobalt-manganese-lithium contains 25-30% of nickel. Lithium-ion batteries used in future hybrid cars will also drive nickel consumption in the battery industry.
3. Looking ahead to judge the future trend, whether it is macroscopic or microscopic, the most internationally mentioned is the uncertainty of the future global economic trend. At present, the unemployment rate in the United States is as high as 9.3%. On November 2, the United States announced further implementation. Quantitative easing monetary policy further highlighted the lack of internal growth in the United States economy. In addition, both Japan and Europe maintain low interest rates ranging from 0 to 0.25%. Although the global economy is not at the bottom, it is also a slow recovery and a difficult transition. The United States tried to use the depreciation of the US dollar to reduce its huge foreign debt, and at the same time gradually restore the manufacturing industry. China wants to transform from a low-end manufacturing industry and gradually develop a strategic new industry. Everyone wants to turn gorgeously to break the previous trade pattern, but in the process of turning around There are some collisions that cannot be avoided. This is the main reason why the exchange rate wars and trade frictions intensify in various countries.
In the complicated international and domestic environment, it is very difficult to predict the nickel price in the future. There are four major factors that affect the market: the dollar exchange rate; second, investor confidence; third, supply fundamentals; and fourth, technological progress. Negative correlation between the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the underlying metal is a high probability event; investor confidence basically reflects the development trend of the global economy, especially the consumption outlook; the supply side reflects the price-led, marginal production cost as the core. The industry’s supply potential; technological advances can fundamentally change people’s lifestyles, leading to huge changes in the demand for raw materials. So far, there has not been any Internet-level technology and its industrialization. If any, the development of new energy vehicles, especially hybrid electric vehicles, should be one of the directions. However, it should be pointed out that nickel is widely used in hybrid car batteries. The premise is that the nickel price is relatively stable or slightly lower, otherwise the high cost of the power battery also hinders its large-scale application.
It is now relatively consistent that the major trend of dollar devaluation will support the long-term trend of nickel prices. However, in the short term, due to the higher price increase of nickel than that of the previous period, the fourth quarter was in an adjusted state. The spot price of LME nickel in 2010 is expected to be 21,422 USdollars/t. In 2011, with the slow recovery of the global economy and the depreciation of the US dollar, the nickel price will rise back to the level of US$2,400/t.